Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.361706 1.410073 1.459811 1.514920 1.574437 1.636962 1.707858
2025-12-14 1.286121 1.349927 1.417413 1.494507 1.580648 1.674545 1.785496
2025-12-21 1.227740 1.301416 1.380979 1.474001 1.580737 1.700600 1.847208
2025-12-28 1.196248 1.279331 1.370764 1.479993 1.608534 1.757160 1.945418
2026-01-04 1.174253 1.265891 1.368488 1.493533 1.644268 1.823595 2.058914
2026-01-11 1.144067 1.241128 1.351287 1.487733 1.655504 1.859955 2.136628
2026-01-18 1.120445 1.222589 1.339998 1.487663 1.672723 1.903648 2.226046
2026-01-25 1.087368 1.191434 1.312149 1.465667 1.660793 1.908660 2.263156
2026-02-01 1.064427 1.171347 1.296562 1.457685 1.665591 1.934877 2.330511
2026-02-08 1.042487 1.151585 1.280437 1.447994 1.667188 1.956241 2.391871
2026-02-15 1.022064 1.132917 1.264850 1.438074 1.667579 1.975390 2.450809
2026-02-22 1.006503 1.119609 1.255290 1.435227 1.676830 2.006771 2.530220
2026-03-01 0.980297 1.092945 1.228769 1.410078 1.655679 1.995155 2.543686
2026-03-08 0.963712 1.077702 1.216084 1.402433 1.657886 2.016873 2.611967
2026-03-15 0.946513 1.061211 1.201269 1.391313 1.654562 2.029979 2.666935
2026-03-22 0.939766 1.057548 1.202585 1.401557 1.681415 2.089340 2.806460
2026-03-29 0.935738 1.057111 1.207897 1.417196 1.716479 2.163381 2.981538
2026-04-05 0.924237 1.046838 1.200062 1.414442 1.724498 2.195383 3.083109
2026-04-12 0.915133 1.039372 1.195626 1.416107 1.738911 2.238319 3.211395
2026-04-19 0.898229 1.021511 1.177030 1.397373 1.721900 2.228563 3.232298
2026-04-26 0.886927 1.010647 1.167431 1.390944 1.723138 2.249095 3.318545
2026-05-03 0.875390 0.999236 1.156813 1.382697 1.721153 2.263882 3.394418
2026-05-10 0.864160 0.988004 1.146166 1.374054 1.718122 2.276539 3.467277